For example the gold market:
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- Trend: positive. As a rule of thumb, have at least a small long position in a positive trend.
- Trend deviation: momentum was close to overextended in February. This is short-term rather negative. However, strong momentum is medium-term positive.
- Volatility: nothing special
- Cycle: dominate cycle expected a peak in February. Quite possible we will have a multi-week consolidation here.
- Exhaustion signals: the pullback last week triggered some downside exhaustion signals. (in an uptrend a potential spot to add long positions)
- Relative hedging: COT data are far from being extreme, so quite possible the up move in gold may continue. Medium-term tops are often associated with extreme positioning.
- Seasonality: rather on the negative side: weak seasonality till June.
- Historical patterns: best-matching patterns of the past suggest some consolidation and in general higher prices in the second-half of the year.
Some consolidation/correction over the next couple weeks is the most likely outcome. Afterwards the gold price is expected to rise and break above the 1370-1400 USD resistance area.