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S&P500 Update: Feb 08, 2020
- Comparison between the recent S&P500 (ETF: SPY / blue line) and the best price matches of the past (red line).
- The patterns of the past are adjusted to the recent price and volatility.
- I like to enhance my investment process with some pure quantitative approaches to eliminate possible confirmation biases.
- There is no “holy grail”-indicator out there and: “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain
- The best matching patterns of the last 30 years urge to be a little bit more cautious over the next couple days or weeks. Therefore, I am more open for possible trade setups on the short side as indicated on the 24th January and the 6th of February (see posts below).
S&P500 Update: Feb 06, 2020
- The VIX is still at a level where bears could try to stage a comeback in the stock market.
- As of today, the momentum indicator is still on a sell signal ( S&P500 ) with a divergence in play.
- Also S&P500 internals are not confirming new highs.
- How I play this: if the market falls tomorrow below the low of today, I will probably try a short. Therefore, also the case for a “double top” could be made. Additional conviction: if gold is able to trade above resistance at 1570 USD.
S&P500 Update: Jan 24, 2020
S&P500 ( $spy / black) vs. the momentum of the internals ( orange ).
— Adrian (@highlevelTrader) January 25, 2020