Silver: Pattern Update

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Silver Pattern Update: Mar 26, 2020

  •  Methodologie:
    • Comparison between the recent silver price (ETF: SLV / blue line) and the best price match of the past (red line).
    • The pattern of the past is adjusted to the recent price and volatility.
    • I like to enhance my investment process with some pure quantitative approaches to eliminate possible confirmation biases.
    • X-axis = trading days.
  • View:
    • Today looks very similar to 2008. This is true from a pattern perspective, as from a macro point of view (deflationary crash).
    • In my last pattern update on silver (see below), I said: “If history is any guide, buying into weakness will be rewarded over the next couple months”. Silver is now up 20 % in a couple days.
    • Short-term traders should take some profits here. A retest of the lows or some consolidation (repair the short-term technicals) is likely.
    • Investors (6 months+) should probably stay invested.

 

Silver Pattern Update: Mar 19, 2020

  • Methodologie:
    • Comparison between the recent silver price (ETF: SLV / blue line) and the best price match of the past (red line).
    • The pattern of the past is adjusted to the recent price and volatility.
    • I like to enhance my investment process with some pure quantitative approaches to eliminate possible confirmation biases.
    • X-axis = trading days.
  • View:
    • Today looks very similar to 2008. This is true from a pattern perspective, as from a macro point of view (deflationary crash).
    • If history is any guide, buying into weakness will be rewarded over the next couple months.
    • Potential downside: 10 %, potential upside 40 %

 

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