Gold: Pattern Update

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Gold Pattern Update: Mar 30, 2020

  • Methodologie:
    • Comparison between the recent gold price (ETF: GLD / blue line) and the best price matches of the past (red line).
    • The patterns of the past are adjusted to the recent price and volatility.
    • I like to enhance my investment process with some pure quantitative approaches to eliminate possible confirmation biases.
    • X-axis = trading days.
  • View:
    • Please check my previous pattern updates below. The best matching patterns were very helpful navigating through this difficult environment.
    • As of today, the best matching patterns are all observed during past bull markets. Therefore, pullbacks are probably rather good buying opportunities.
    • If history is any guide, expect some more consolidation/correction over the next couple days/weeks.
    • Afterwards, a strong rise should follow with a possible target of 1800 USD.

 

Gold Pattern Update: Mar 22, 2020

  • Methodologie:
    • Comparison between the recent gold price (ETF: GLD / blue line) and the best price matches of the past (red line).
    • The patterns of the past are adjusted to the recent price and volatility.
    • I like to enhance my investment process with some pure quantitative approaches to eliminate possible confirmation biases.
    • X-axis = trading days.
  • View:
    • In my last pattern update (see below), I expected a correction/consolidation to take place. The correction was fueled by a deflationary crash leading to margin calls, de-leveraging and portfolio rebalancings.
    • As of today, the best matching patterns are all observed during past bull markets. Therefore, pullbacks are probably rather good buying opportunities.
    • Price wise the correction could already be complete. However, looking at the time component indicates more consolidation from here over the next couple weeks.
    • Afterwards, I expect gold to reach 1800 USD in 2020 and probably 2000+ USD in 2021.

 

Gold Pattern Update: Mar 10, 2020

  • Comparison between the recent gold price (ETF: GLD / blue line) and the best price matches of the past (red line).
  • The patterns of the past are adjusted to the recent price and volatility.
  • I like to enhance my investment process with some pure quantitative approaches to eliminate possible confirmation biases.
  • There is no “holy grail”-indicator out there and: “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain
  • In my last pattern update (see below), I noted a possible buying opportunity in gold.
  • While the medium-term picture (couple months) remains highly bullish, gold seems to be stretched in the short-term and probably needs to cool-off a little bit.
  • Afterwards, I expect a move to 1800 USD.

 

Gold Pattern Update: Mar 1, 2020

  • Comparison between the recent gold price (ETF: GLD / blue line) and the best price matches of the past (red line).
  • The patterns of the past are adjusted to the recent price and volatility.
  • I like to enhance my investment process with some pure quantitative approaches to eliminate possible confirmation biases.
  • There is no “holy grail”-indicator out there and: “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain
  • The best matching patterns are clearly associated within an ongoing bull market. Therefore, pullbacks are buying opportunities.
  • History argues to buy gold between now and 1480 USD  (GLD = 140). Afterwards, expect 1750-1800 USD in 2020.

 

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